A look at Minor Leaguers competing for the #5 Rotation spot

Today I wanted to look at the Minor League pitchers that are in the Reds camp this spring, and the spots they could be fighting for.

Rotation Spots

Now it appears that 1-4 goes Harang, Arroyo, Milton and Lohse. That leaves open just the #5 spot for the taking. Phil Dumatrait, Bobby Livingston and Homer Bailey will all compete with Kirk Saarloos and Elizardo Ramirez for the #5 spot. Unless an injury happens that is 1 spot for 5 guys who all have to compete over it. In my mind, the favorites have to be Saarloos and Ramirez starting the season at #5, but lets take a look at the other guys who all with a good spring could possibly take the mound for the Reds this April. I want to include what some projection systems think these guys are pegged to do this upcoming season. I will use CHONE and ZIPS projections as long as they are available for the players.

Homer Bailey

Homer has everything you would like to see in a pitcher. He is tall, 6-4, brings in a dominate fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 98. He has a 12-6 hammer curve and a slower 11-5 version as well. He has a change up that needs some improvement, but lets remember that he won't turn 21 until the first week of May. Despite the fact that he may be the best pitcher going for the #5 spot, he probably will be sent to AAA to continue his development and to work more and mature against better hitters before he sees the mound in Cincinnati.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2007	CHONE			4.94			93.0	99	55	51	13	50	83
2007	ZiPS	7	8	4.50	27	24	126.0	120	69	63	15	66	110

Phil Dumatrait

Phil began last year in AA where he posted a 3.62 ERA in 49.2 innings before being promoted to AAA where he posted a 4.72 ERA. There were rumors of a loss in velocity for Phil, to where he was barely hitting the high 80's with his fastball. Phil has never been a guy who throws a ton of strikes (career milb walk rate is 4.29/9ip) and if his stuff is beginning to suffer, his odds are not very good at breaking camp with the Reds. I would expect him in Louisville to start the season.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2007	ZiPS	6	12	5.72	26	25	140.0	156	97	89	20	69	91

Bobby Livingston

Livingston was a waiver claim from the Seattle Mariners for the Reds. Livingston has a below average fastball that sits in the mid 80's, with a good curveball and a good change up. He also throws a below average slider at times. One good thing he has going for him is that he has very good control (milb walk rate is 1.80/9ip). Looking at the projections, it seems that the CHONE projections like him quite a bit more than ZiPS do. I don't think he will be a true challenger for the #5 spot, and like Bailey and Dumatrait he will probably be heading back to AAA.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2007	CHONE			4.50			156.0	170	85	78	20	55	78
2007	ZiPS	6	13	6.28	26	24	149.0	185	114	104	32	47	69