Pecota on Homer Bailey

This is from The Lineup Card through aol.com

6. Where should Homer Bailey start the season?

Phillip Hughes is the top pitching prospect in baseball, followed closely by Bailey. Though Cincy's pitching has improved with the Bronson Arroyo trade and the development of Aaron Harang, they could sure use a potential ace. Bailey is projected to toss 129 innings, with 119 Ks, 66 BB, a 1.46 WHIP and a 4.64 ERA. The Reds can probably afford to wait on Bailey, who's only 21 and doesn't project to be a real impact arm quite yet. He's also projected to allow 18 taters. Wayne Krivsky should wait a little while longer, he'll be worth it.

I think they are expecting an awful lot of walks from Bailey next season.... 66 walks in 129 innings is 4.6bb/9ip. I am not so sure I buy into that. Also 18 HR in 129 innings works out to a 1.26 HR/9ip.... again, I am not so sure I buy into that. In Homers 254 minor league innings he has allowed just 12 HRs, which is a rate of 0.42 HR/9ip. The majors have better hitters, but I am not sure it will cause his HR rate to triple.