Si.com Top 15 Prospects; Bruce at #15, Bailey at #3

Bryan Smith, for SI.com released his 2007 Top 15 prospects in baseball today. Jay Bruce came in at #15 and Homer Bailey was the highest ranked pitcher at #3.

Photo by: Paul Gierhart/MLB.com

15. Jay Bruce, 20, RF, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (Class A-): .291/.355/.516, 19 SB in 444 AB

Bruce had a historic season for a teen-ager in the Midwest League, showing left-handed power unrivaled for a player of his maturity. Like so many young left-handed hitters, Bruce has work to do with southpaws, striking out in 30 percent of his at-bats against them in 2006. This is not what scares me. What does is the context within Bruce's numbers and the similarities they bear to Brian Dopirak's legendary Midwest League season in 2004. That year Dopirak became wildly hyped in prospect circles, but I made note of a 27-game stretch during the summer in which he was a decidedly better player than the rest of the season, which is the same thing that happened to Bruce in 2006. In 33 games between June 4 and July 10, Bruce was amazing, hitting .427 and clubbing 24 extra-base hits. The rest of the season? A paltry .238 batting average. However, his power did remain consistent throughout the season, so I am now cautiously confident in Bruce's future.

I think one thing that Bryan overlooked here was in August when Jay tried to play through an injury. If you take out Jays August, he OPS'd .800 the parts of the season that wasn't August or June 4-July 10. While that is nowhere near what he did the rest of the season, for Bryan to exclude 28% of Jays at bats is a little pressing if you ask me. Everyone has a hot and cold time during the season....Jay just happened to go absolutely insane for 124 at bats in a 5 week period of time.

3. Homer Bailey, 21, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.47 ERA, 99H/138.2IP, 156K/50BB

A year ago, things did not add up with Homer Bailey. The prep star's full season debut began in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, where he allowed a 7.73 H/9, struck out 125 batters and allowed just five home runs in just over 100 innings. However, his ERA was 4.43. The reason? Sixty-two walks, indicating poor command that Bailey had not shown as a high schooler. The anomalies I saw straightened themselves out in 2006, when Bailey became the game's best pitching prospect. The electricity of Bailey's stuff -- the life of his fastball and break on his curve -- are fantastic, and Bailey already attacks hitters like a veteran. In 2005, Bailey walked fewer than two batters just six times. In 2006, he raised the number to nine starts. If he can make a 50 percent improvement on that number again next season, Bailey will finish the year in Cincinnati.

I don't really disagree with anything Bryan says about Bailey. I look forward to seeing him in Cincinnati sometime this year, although I hope its not until July....but I am not holding my breath either.