Pitchers 21 or younger in the Majors from 2000-2005

Today I was looking through topics over on Redszone.com and someone brought up the history of Reds pitchers at age of 21 and the track record was not very good at all. However, I think the past 10 years specifically we have had more young pitchers brought up with the ability to succeed due to strict innings and pitch counts. I went back from 2000-2005 and looked for every pitcher 21 or younger to pitch at least 80 innings in 1 season. I found 24 seasons and they are listed below.

Player	Year	Age	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	K	W
Quevedo, Ruben	2000	21	7.47	3	10	88	96	21	65	54
Santana, Johan	2000	21	6.49	2	3	86	102	11	64	54
Greinke, Zack	2005	21	5.80	5	17	183	233	23	114	53
Bonderman, Jeremy	2003	20	5.56	6	19	162	193	23	108	58
Perez, Oliver	2003	21	5.47	4	10	126.2	129	22	141	77
Asencio, Miguel	2002	21	5.11	4	7	123.1	136	17	58	64
Davies, Kyle	2005	21	4.93	7	6	87.2	98	8	62	49
Bonderman, Jeremy	2004	21	4.89	11	13	184	168	24	168	73
Peavy, Jake	2002	21	4.52	6	7	97.2	106	11	90	33
Sabathia, C.C.	2001	21	4.39	17	5	180.1	149	19	171	95
Greinke, Zack	2004	20	3.97	8	11	145	143	26	100	26
Smith, Bud	2001	21	3.83	6	3	84.2	79	12	59	24
Meche, Gil	2000	21	3.78	4	4	85.2	75	7	60	40
Kazmir, Scott	2005	21	3.77	10	9	186	172	12	174	100
Garland, Jon	2001	21	3.69	6	7	117	123	16	61	55
Zambrano, Carlos	2002	21	3.66	4	8	108.1	94	9	93	63
Perez, Oliver	2002	20	3.50	4	5	90	71	13	94	48
Ankiel, Rick	2000	21	3.50	11	7	175	137	21	194	90
Prior, Mark	2002	21	3.32	6	6	116.2	98	14	147	38
Willis, Dontrelle	2003	21	3.30	14	6	160.2	148	13	142	58
Williams, Jerome	2003	21	3.30	7	5	131	116	10	88	49
Rodriguez, Francisco	2003	21	3.03	8	3	86	50	12	95	35
Hernandez, Felix	2005	19	2.67	4	4	84.1	61	5	77	23
Villarreal, Oscar	2003	21	2.57	10	7	98	80	6	80	46

Now, there were 3 pitchers who were primarily relievers (Santana, Rodriguez and Villarreal) but the rest were all starters. Homer Bailey turns 21 at the beginning of May. There is a lot of speculation on whether he will break spring training with the Reds. Looking at the list, there have been quite a few guys in there who performed just fine, but there has also been some guys who did not perform so well. Of the 21 players on the list that were starting pitchers, 16 of them (76%) produced an ERA better than 5.00, which would be well enough as a #5 starter to merit being in the rotation. 12 of the pitchers (57%) posted an ERA under 4.00, which definitely warrants them being in the rotation at such a young age. This past season there were also quite a few successes with Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain and Joel Zumaya.

If Homer Bailey does make it to the Reds this season, and I think he will, I would expect him to join the 76% that posted an ERA under 5.00 and be a good addition to the rotation from the #5 spot. Whether he can join the 57% and post an ERA under the 4.00 has yet to be seen, but I wouldn't put it past him.