Looking back at 2006 traded prospects

Zach Ward - Traded for Kyle Lohse

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DAY	MID	7	0	2.29	20	18	114.0	74	35	29	2	37	95	3.21	.188
BEL	MID	1	4	5.93	6	6	30.1	29	20	20	1	11	23	2.19	.250

Zach was a guy that I really liked in the Reds system and they just packed him up and shipped him away. That happens though. Zach struggled quite a bit in the 30 innings he pitched after he left the Reds system. His hit rate sky rocketed and his ground outs to fly outs went from over 3 to 1 to barely over 2 to 1. I think it was just a little bump in the road for Zach and he will rebound fine.

Travis Chick - Traded for Eddie Guardado

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
SAN	TEX	4	2	3.19	11	11	67.2	57	25	24	3	37	44	1.12	.230
MLB		0	0	12.60	3	0	5.0	7	7	7	0	10	2	1.00	.333

After Travis was traded he had some success in a new league with his new team. He lowered his ERA by 1.42 from his time with the Reds, but his strikeout rate dropped off dramatically and his walk rate went up. However, his home run rate dropped off at a large rate, which helped his ERA lower itself. Travis also got a brief cup of coffee with the Mariners. That did not go so well. In 5 innings he walked 10 batters while striking out just 2 and allowing 7 earned runs.

Brandon Roberts - Traded for Juan Castro

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
FTM	FSL	.316	71	285	40	90	12	1	3	34	113	20	43	27	7	.370	.396	.766

Brandon was drafted last season and performed well enough to get a promotion to Sarasota to begin the season. He did mediocre there, but once he was traded nearly all of his numbers went up across the board. His average went up 49 points, his slugging went up 88 points and he showed quite a bit more power.

Justin Germano - Traded for Rheal Cormier.

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
SWB	INT	2	0	2.82	6	6	38.1	40	13	12	2	2	25	2.10	.265

Justin had success with his new team as well, with an ERA lower by 0.87 than he had with the Bats. He also had a better ground ball ratio with his new team than with the Bats. In 38.1 innings, he allowed just 2 walks, which is a much better ratio than he had with the Bats as well.

Top 5 Pitcher of the Year Candidates

Today we will look at the 5 Pitchers who I think are the 5 most deserving players for Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Cincinnati Reds. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order.

Homer Bailey

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
SAR	FSL	3	5	3.31	13	13	70.2	49	35	26	6	22	79	0.99	.189
CHA	SOU	7	1	1.59	13	13	68.0	50	13	12	1	28	77	1.43	.208
Totals		10	6	2.47	26	26	138.2	99	48	38	7	50	156	1.18	.198

Homer made huge strides this season. He jumped from the FSL after the All-Star break and went to the Southern League where he went 7-1 and dominated the league. He only allowed 1 HR from May 24th through the end of the season and held opposing batters to a .198 AVG.

Johnny Cueto

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DAY	MID	8	1	2.59	14	14	76.1	52	22	22	5	15	82	1.15	.191
SAR	FSL	7	2	3.50	12	12	61.2	48	25	24	6	23	61	0.79	.214
Totals		15	3	3.00	26	26	138.0	100	47	46	11	38	143	0.96	.202

Johnny Cueto was the surprise breakout prospect of the year. He came out of nowhere and jumped onto everyone's radar. The first half of the season he dominated the Midwest League before getting the promotion to the FSL where he struggled early but finished strong.

Carlos Fisher

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DAY	MID	12	5	2.76	27	27	150.0	133	53	46	5	38	122	1.93	.237

Carlos Fisher was a 2005 Draft pick out of Lewis and Clark State. Fisher was not even a pitcher when he went to college and made the switch as a sophomore. Carlos was among the Reds leaders in wins, ERA, Innings pitched and GO/FO ratio.

David Shafer

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
CHA	SOU	1	2	2.36	44	26	49.2	37	14	13	2	16	52	0.81	.204

David Shafer was the closer for easily the best bullpen in the Reds system at Chattanooga. Shafer had a Reds best 26 saves and helped take the Lookouts to the Southern League playoffs.

Steve Kelly

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
CHA	SOU	9	4	2.82	15	14	83.0	88	34	26	4	24	63	1.10	.273
LOU	INT	4	7	3.16	12	10	68.1	68	26	24	7	29	46	1.53	.264
Totals		13	11	2.97	27	24	151.1	156	60	50	11	53	109	1.28	.269

Steve Kelly is not the youngest guy in the group, but he put up a very good and unheralded season in 2006 between Chattanooga and Louisville. Kelly is not an overpowering pitcher, but he gets the job done. He had 13 wins and an ERA under 3.

I am still having problems with the polls that I use, so there isn't one again, but if you want to vote, you could just leave a reply with who and why.

Baseball America releases the Midwest League Top 20 Prospects

Well, the Reds put 2 players in the top 20 list.
Coming in at #1 in the Midwest League is Jay Bruce. Jay was in front of last years #1 overall draft pick Justin Upton and super prospect Cameron Maybin. What they say about Bruce is enough to make Reds fans pretty excited. BA wont allow you to copy and paste any of their stuff, but to paraphrase, He has the best chance to be a good hitter of anyone in the league and compares very well to Larry Walker.
Johnny Cueto came in at #12 in the league, where he only spent about half of his season.
Noticably missing from the list was Travis Wood, who I personally think is a better prospect than Cueto.

Top 5 Positional Player of the Year Candidates

Today we will look at the 5 Positional players who I think are the 5 most deserving players for Minor League Positional Player of the Year for the Cincinnati Reds. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order. It just so happened to work out that I picked one guy from the top 5 levels, didn't mean for it to work out that way, but it worked out nicely that way.

Jay Bruce -Dayton Dragons

Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
DAY	A-	117	444	69	129	42	5	16	81	229	44	106	19	9	.291	.355	.516	.871

Last years #1 pick for the Reds did exactly what you would expect from him and then some At just 19 he almost outperformed everyone in the league he was in and arguably is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. He led the team in home runs, RBI, batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and doubles.

Chris Denorfia - Louisville Bats

Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
LOU	AAA	83	312	46	109	19	1	7	45	151	34	41	15	1	.349	.409	.484	.893

Chris was last years breakout player in the system. He hit well over .300 in both Chattanooga and Louisville last year before spending part of September with the Reds. This year he began in Louisville and fell just a few plate appearances shy of winning the batting title (teammate Norris Hopper won with a .347 average) and also would have led the team in on base percentage and slugging.

Paul Janish - Dayton Dragons/Sarasota Reds/Chattanooga Lookouts

Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
DAY	A-	26	98	19	39	6	0	5	18	60	7	10	0	0	.398	.435	.612	1.047
SAR	A+	91	335	53	93	17	2	9	55	141	38	39	8	2	.278	.355	.421	.776
CHA	AA	4	15	1	4	1	0	0	2	5	1	5	0	0	.267	.313	.333	.646
Totals		121	448	73	136	24	2	14	75	206	46	54	8	2	.304	.371	.460	.830

Paul was always said to have a very good glove, but his bat hadn't quite shown itself prior to this season. He began the year in Dayton and proceeded to flirt with .400 and OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season, earning him a promotion to Sarasota. Once he got there he put up good numbers again. His combined stat line of .304/.371/.460/.830 for a shortstop is quite intriguing and add in that he had 14 home runs and 75 RBI to go along with just 8 more strikeouts than walks and his season wound up very nicely.

Chris Valaika - Billings Mustangs

Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
BIL	R+	70	275	58	89	22	4	8	60	143	24	61	2	2	.324	.387	.520	.907

Normally I wouldn't think of putting a rookie ball player on a list like this. However, in this case I made the exception. Chris won the MVP of the Pioneer League, hit .324 and slugged .520 while putting together a 32 game hitting streak which is the new Pioneer League record.

Joey Votto - Chattanooga Lookouts

Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CHA	AA	136	508	85	162	46	2	22	77	278	78	109	24	7	.319	.408	.547	.956

Joey Votto came off an uninspiring 2005 campaign and tore off one heck of a season in the Southern League. Joey flirted with the league triple crown through August and ended up taking home league MVP honors in the Southern League. His .319/.408/.547 line is more impressive than anyone in the system, he led the entire Minor Leagues in doubles with 46 and he also stole a career high 24 bases.

Thats the list of all of them. I was going to include a poll, but the place I usually use for polls is having some issues right now, so if you want to cast a vote for who you think deserves it the most, just post a comment with who and why if you would like.

Something Wayne Krivsky said tonight.......

During tonight's Reds broadcast, Wayne Krivsky was in the booth with George Grand and Chris Welsh, and they began talking about how Bruce, Bailey and Votto were named to the BA Minor League All-Star team. They asked him the arrival times of the three and he said something to the extent of, and I am paraphrasing here: "Jay is in Instructional League right now and will probably start in Sarasota next year. Joey will be at that level between here (Cincinnati) and AA, in AAA. Homer, well we will see with him." He went on to say he was not one to skip prospects over AAA because he feels it is very important in the development of players.

I think it is quite telling that he quickly said Votto would be in AAA but wouldn't commit to saying that Homer Bailey would be.

Reds system stat leaders

Below is the top 3 leaders from most offensive and pitching categories.

Stat	Leader	Second	Third
Average	Chris Denorfia .349	Norris Hopper .347	Javon Moran .320
On Base %	Chris Denorfia .409	Joey Votto .408	Tonys Gutierrez .396
Slugging %	Joey Votto .547	Jay Bruce .516	Chris Denorfia .484
Runs	Joey Votto 85	Cody Strait 85	Michael Griffin 71
Doubles	Joey Votto 46	Jay Bruce 42	Cody Strait 36
Triples	Drew Anderson 12	Chris Dickerson 7	Michael Griffin 6
Home Runs	Joey Votto 22	Jay Garthwaite 21	Strait/Snyder 17
RBI	Jay Bruce 81	Jeremiah Piepkorn 79	Votto/Snyder 77
Walks	Joey Votto 78	Chris Dickerson 65	Michael DeJesus 59
Stolen Bases	Cody Strait 50	Marland Williams 35	Norris Hopper 25
Starter ERA	Homer Bailey 2.47	Tom Shearn 2.52	Steve Kelly 2.97
Reliever ERA	Jose Rojas 1.01	Mike Burns 1.75	Brian Shackelford 1.82
WHIP	Johnny Cueto 1.00	Homer Bailey 1.07	Carlos Fisher 1.14
Innings	Carlos Fisher 150	Tyler Pelland 142	Sam Lecure 141.2
Strikeouts	Homer Bailey 156	Johnny Cueto 143	Travis Wood 133

Three Reds make Baseball America Minor League All-Star team

There were only 14 players named to the team throughout the entire minor leagues. all 8 positions had 1 player named, 1 DH, 3 Starting pitchers and 1 relief pitcher.
Joey Votto was named to the team as a first baseman
Jay Bruce was named to the team as an outfielder
Homer Bailey was named to the team as a starting pitcher

Click here to read what they wrote about each player at baseballamerica.com

Baseball America also had sub rankings where two Billings Mustangs made the rookie level All-Star team.
Justin Turner and Chris Valaika were named to the team as 2B and a SS respectively.
You can read those lists by clicking here and going to www.baseballamerica.com

Reds system prospect depth chart

Basically this is my position by position top prospects. Just a first and second string guy. Outfielders are just bunched together, there are 6 of them listed, in order of their prospect status. Same goes for both starting and relief pitching.

Position	Player	Age	Level
Catcher 1st string	Miguel Perez	23	AA
Catcher 2nd string	Craig Tatum	23	A-
1st Base 1st string	Joey Votto	23	AA
1st Base 2nd string	Jesse Gutierrez	28	AAA
2nd Base 1st string	Drew Anderson	23	AA
2nd Base 2nd string	Justin Turner	21	R
3rd Base 1st string	Aaron Herr	25	AA
3rd Base 2nd string	Juan Francisco	19	R
Shortstop 1st string	Paul Janish	23	A+/AA
Shortstop 2nd string	Chris Valaika	21	R
Outfield 1st string	Jay Bruce	19	A-
Outfield 1st string	Drew Stubbs	21	R
Outfield 1st string	Javon Moran	23	AA
Outfield 2nd string	Cody Strait	23	A+
Outfield 2nd string	BJ Szymanski	23	A-
Outfield 2nd string	Jay Garthwaite	25	A+
Starting Pitcher	Homer Bailey	20	AA
Starting Pitcher	Travis Wood	19	A-
Starting Pitcher	Johnny Cueto	20	A+
Starting Pitcher	Sam Lecure	22	A+
Relief Pitcher	Jon Coutlangus	25	AA/AAA
Relief Pitcher	Calvin Medlock	23	AA
Relief Pitcher	David Shafer	24	AA
Relief Pitcher	Carlos Guevara	24	AA

Questions or comments on anything is welcome.

Preview for the week

Monday: I think I am going to take the day off. If something comes up, I will post it, but otherwise I am going to just work on the rest of the weeks stuff.
Tuesday: Top Prospect depth chart: Top 2 prospects at each position
Wednesday: Organizational Leaders: Who led the entire system in what?
Thursday: Top 5 Position player of the year candidates. Will have stats, little bit of info on each guy, and a poll to vote in for your opinions
Friday: Top 5 Pitching player of the year candidates. Same as above.
Saturday: Review of the players lost and gained by the Reds system this year from all the trades the team has made.

Oh yeah, just wanted to say one more thing:

Whodey!

Louisville Team Leaders and Top Hitting and Pitching prospects

Louisville Team Leaders

Offensive Leaders

Stat Category	Leader	Number
Batting Average	Norris Hopper	.347
On Base Percentage	Norris Hopper	.378
Slugging Percentage	JesseGutierrez	.436
Runs Scored	Earl Snyder	58
Doubles	Jesse Gutierrez	27
Triples	Wise/Kata	4
Home Runs	Earl Snyder	17
RBI	Earl Snyder	77
Walks	Jesse Gutierrez	49
Stolen Bases	Norris Hopper	25

Side Note: Chris Denorfia fell a few plate appearances short of leading the team in average, .349, slugging, .484 and on base percentage, .409.

Pitching Leaders

Stat Category	Leader	Number
ERA (90ip minimum)	Chris Michalak	2.99
Innings pitched	Chris Michalak	132.1
Wins	Michalak/Shearn	9
Saves	Scott Chiasson	29
Strikeouts	Mike Gosling	100
WHIP (90ip minimum)	Chris Michalak	1.28

Top Hitting Prospect

Chris Denorfia - 19th round draft pick in 2002 out of Wheaton College

2006 Season Stats

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LOU	INT	.349	83	312	46	109	19	1	7	45	34	41	15	1	.409	.484	.893

Chris Denorfia is probably one of just two players on the Bats who could see every day playing time, the other would be Brendon Harris. Chris would have led the International League in batting average if he had a handful of more plate appearances. He is a little old, but to be honest, Louisville is pretty bare of prospects. He brings some good skills to the plate though. He makes a lot of contact, he has good speed, knows how to take a walk and he steals bases at a very good clip (15 of 16). He also has a very good glove and good arm in the outfield. Now with the Reds this is probably the last time Chris sees much time in the minors and he will probably be at least someones 4th outfielder for a while for what he can do for you coming off the bench.

Top Pitching Prospect

Honestly, I cant pick one. There is not a single player in Louisville who is even remotely a prospect. Phil Dumatrait is the closest thing, and he had a 4.72 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.

Drew Stubbs was in Cincinnati this weekend, heading to Instructional League next week

Consider this weekend a taste that should whet Drew Stubbs' appetite to reach the Majors in a few years.

Stubbs -- the Reds' 2006 first-round pick in the June First-Year Player Draft -- and his family were guests of the club at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The outfielder toured the facility and met several players in the home clubhouse.

On Friday, he took in the game between the Reds and Cubs with his parents, Rick and Katherine, and his grandfather, Bob Allday.

"Everything is very impressive," Stubbs said. "It's something to definitely look forward to as a player when I get here."

Stubbs, who turns 22 on Oct. 4, signed quickly in June and completed his first pro season this summer with rookie-level Billings. The outfielder's numbers -- a .252 average with four homers, 24 RBIs and 19 steals -- weren't eye-popping, but he still considered it a successful first season.

"Rather than going in with a statistical goal or anything like that, I just wanted to go in and realize that this just a start to my pro career and get my feet wet," said Stubbs, who selected out of the University of Texas. "You're not going to make the big leagues in your first summer. I just took it for it was worth and enjoyed myself."

Stubbs will head to Sarasota, Fla., on Sunday to attend the Reds' Instructional League. He said he planned to work mostly on his hitting.

Article was written by Mark Sheldon of Mlb.com for the Cincinnati Reds Official Website

Wayne Krivsky on not bringing up Bailey and on our system

This is from an article that John Fay wrote for the Cincinnati Enquirer

Krivsky on the decision not to bring up Homer Bailey: "As an organization, we were divided. Some people thought he could really be the guy. Some others were absolutely adamant that he not come up. ... It comes down to doing the right thing for the player. It's his career. ... I thought the risk outweighed the reward."

Krivsky on the minor leagues: "Our system is in pretty good shape. I've got to compliment (farm director) Johnny Almaraz and his people. We had a winning record in the minors. We had two teams qualify for the postseason. We had three batting champions. ... You never have enough good players. The one thing I'm most proud of is we got through the year very healthy. In 2005, we had 44 arm surgeries, a lot of them major. This year, we had 14, without one being major. We're doing a lot of things right."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060922/SPT04/609220452/-1/CINCI

I wonder if when Wayne says some people thought he could be the guy if he actually meant Jerry Narron? I tend to agree with Wayne on this one, the risks outweighed the reward ten-fold in this case.

As for the system, I think it made a step forward this year, but absolutely none of it had to do with a winning record in the minors, but with the talent it had making strides forward and not backwards.

Chattanooga Team Leaders and Top hitting and pitching prospects

Chattanooga Team Leaders

Offensive Leaders

Stat Category	Leader	Number
Batting Average	Joey Votto	.320
On Base Percentage	Joey Votto	.408
Slugging Percentage	Joey Votto	.547
Runs Scored	Joey Votto	85
Doubles	Joey Votto	46
Triples	Chris Dickerson	7
Home Runs	Joey Votto	22
RBI	Joey Votto	77
Walks	Joey Votto	78
Stolen Bases	Joey Votto	24

Pitching Leaders

Stat Category	Leader	Number
ERA (90ip minimum)	Josh Hall	3.39
Innings pitched	Tyler Pelland	142.0
Wins	Kelly/Hall/Pelland	9
Saves	David Shafer	26
Strikeouts	Edward Valdez	111
WHIP (90ip minimum)	Edward Valdez	1.26

Top Hitting Prospect

Joey Votto - 2002 2nd round draft pick out of Toronto, Canada

2006 Season Stats

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CHA	SOU	.319	136	508	85	162	46	2	22	77	78	109	24	7	.408	.547	.956

Well seriously was there any question as to who was the best hitting prospect on the Lookouts? Joey led the team in every offensive category except triples, oh yeah, he also won the Southern League MVP award. Joey rebounded about as well as you possibly can coming off of a disappointing 2005 season. He made a legit run at the SL triple crown until the last month of the season where he tailed off in RBI. Joey does a lot of things well, but the thing that surprised me most was the 24 stolen bases. His previous career high was 9. Joey hired a personal trainer in the offseason because he wanted to get in better shape and become a faster runner. It looks like that was a good idea and it worked out very well for him. Joey will probably start the season out in AAA Louisville next year, but if Scott Hatteberg struggles, he could see a call up by midseason depending on what happens with first base in the offseason for the big league club.

Top Pitching Prospect

Homer Bailey - 2004 1st round draft pick out of La Grange, TX (High School)

2006 Season Stats

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO
CHA	SOU	7	1	1.59	13	13	68.0	50	13	12	1	28	77	1.43

Homer Bailey is the crown jewel of the Reds farm system, no doubts about it. Baseball is all about pitching, and Homer could be the #1 pitching prospect in all of Minor League Baseball. Bailey has a fastball that sits in the Mid-90's and has reached 98 frequently, a plus-plus 11-5 breaking curve ball and an in progress change up that has seen steps forward this year but still needs some work. Homer began the year in Sarasota and had some success there posting a 3.31 ERA but was promoted to Chattanooga after the All-Star Break in the FSL and went off and dominated the Southern League the rest of the way. He held opposing hitters to a .208 average against and an ERA of 1.59 as a 20 year old in AA. His rate stats were quite well, as would be expected with such a good prospect. He struck out 10.19 hitters per 9 innings, allowed just 6.61 hits per 9 and most impressive in my opinion, 0.13 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched. Homer will probably start the season in Louisville (at least I hope) and will be the first guy on call when the Reds need a pitcher in all likelihood.

Sarasota Reds Team Leaders and Top hitting and pitching prospects

Sarasota Team Leaders

Offensive Leaders

Batting Average- Drew Anderson .300

On Base Percentage - Tonys Gutierrez .396

Slugging Percentage - Jay Garthwaite .478

Runs scored - Cody Strait 85

Doubles - Cody Strait 36

Triples - Drew Anderson 9

Home Runs - Jay Garthwaite 21

RBI - Jeremiah Piepkorn 79

Walks - Tonys Gutierrez 55

Stolen Bases - Cody Strait 50

Pitching Leaders

ERA (minimum 90ip) - Sam Lecure 3.43

Innings pitched - Sam Lecure 141.3

Wins - James Avery 8

Save - Abe Woody 12

Strikeouts - Sam Lecure 115

WHIP (minimum 90ip) - Sam Lecure 1.24

Top Hitting Prospect

Paul Janish - Drafted 5th round 2004 out of Rice University

2006 Season stats (Sarasota only)

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAR	FSL	.278	91	335	53	93	17	2	9	55	38	39	8	2	.355	.421	.776

To be completely honest, I don't think there are any true hitting prospects on this team. Paul Janish, Drew Anderson and Cody Strait all have some sort of skill set that could get them to the majors, but no one is that can't miss type of guy. I went with Paul over the other two players for several reasons. First being his defense, which by all accounts is Major League Ready at a premium position like SS. Paul also had the second highest OPS of all shortstops in the Florida State League, and while he is 23 and it was just High-A it still was not a bad season for him. Paul also has a nice ability to make contact and take a walk which can be seen with his walk-to-strikeout ratio. Paul played the first month of the season in Dayton and the last few weeks of the season in Chattanooga, where he will probably return next season to begin. Next year will be a "make-or-break" year for Paul. The jump from High-A to AA is said to be one of the biggest jumps for players and if Paul continues to hit and play defense, we could see him in a Reds uniform someday.

Top Pitching Prospect

Johnny Cueto - Undrafted Free Agent signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004

2006 Season stats (Sarasota only)

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
SAR	FSL	7	2	3.50	12	12	1	1	61.2	48	25	24	6	23	61

Johnny began the season as a relative unknown. He was so unknown in fact that Baseball America did not even list him as one of the Reds top 30 prospects in the preseason rankings. He began the season in Dayton as a 20 year old and he was so good he was promoted halfway though the season to Sarasota. At first Johnny struggled posting a 4.50 ERA thought his first 6 starts, however over the next 11 starts he posted an ERA of 2.96 to lower his season ERA in Sarasota to 3.50. Johnny posted good hits per inning numbers as well as strikeouts per inning numbers. I have a feeling that Johnny will start the season out in Chattanooga after performing well in Sarasota for the second half of the season, but if the team thinks he needs a little bit of work on something, you may see him return to Sarasota briefly next season to start out

2 Billings Mustangs make BA Pioneer League Top 20 Prospects

Drew Stubbs (2006 first round) was named the 7th best prospect in the Pioneer League by Baseball America and Chris Valaika (2006 3rd round) was named the 13th best prospect in the Pioneer League.
www.baseballamerica.com

Dayton Dragons Team Leaders and Top hitting and pitching prospects

Dayton Team Leaders

Offensive Leaders

Batting Average- Jay Bruce .291

On Base Percentage - Jay Bruce .355

Slugging Percentage - Jay Bruce .516

Runs scored - Michael Griffin 71

Doubles - Jay Bruce 42

Triples - Michael Griffin 6

Home Runs - Jay Bruce/BJ Szymanski 16

RBI - Jay Bruce 81

Walks - Michael DeJesus 59

Stolen Bases - BJ Szymanski 22

Pitching Leaders

ERA (minimum 90ip) - Carlos Fisher 2.76 (Zach Ward had a 2.29, but is no longer with the organization)

Innings pitched - Carlos Fisher 150

Wins - Carlos Fisher 12

Save - Blake Hendley 15

Strikeouts - Travis Wood 133

WHIP (minimum 90ip) - Carlos Fisher 1.14

Top Hitting Prospect

Jay Bruce - 2005 1st round draft pick out of Westbrook HS, TX

2006 Season stats

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DAY	MID	.291	117	444	69	129	42	5	16	81	44	106	19	9	.355	.516	.871

Jay Bruce tore apart the Midwest League until he was injured in August. In August he hit .167 in 60 at bats, but overall he had one of the best seasons a 19 year old high schooler has had in the Midwest League in recent memory. Jay racked up 63 extra-base hits in his first full season campaign. Jay is a 5-tool player who some scouts questioned would not hit for average for a few years, but he hit over .300 for the better part of the season before tailing off in August after his injury, he was hitting .300 prior to missing a week. Jay is in my mind, easily the second best prospect in the Reds system and somewhere between 10 and 15 in all of baseball. He has a bright future ahead of him and he should start off in Sarasota next season.

Top Hitting Prospect

Travis Wood - 2006 1st round draft pick out of Bryant HS, AR

2006 Season Stats

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
DAY	MID	10	5	3.66	27	27	140.0	108	65	57	14	56	133

Travis Wood is arguably the second best pitching prospect in the Reds system behind Homer Bailey and the fact that he spent his entire season at Dayton made the pick an easy one. Travis has a decent fastball that is 89-91 but has touched 95 in the past, a plus-plus change up and an in-progress curve ball. As a 19 year old he put up a solid ERA and very good rate stats. He allowed 6.9 h/9 and he struck out 8.55/9 innings. His walk rate was a bit high at 3.59/9 but he is still young and was still learning to pitch. One thing that worries me about Travis Wood is that the Reds allowed him to throw 140 innings as a 19 year old. Looking at his month by month numbers, once August began and he hit the 110 innings pitched mark, his strike out rate dropped from over 9 per 9 innings pitched to 6.35 per 9 innings pitched. Travis will start his season off in Sarasota next season and in a very pitcher friendly league like the FSL, he should have some success there. I would like to see Travis also gain some weight in the offseason, he is 6 foot tall and just 165 pounds, some weight could do him some good for his stamina.

ProjectProspect.com Reds top 3 prospects

1. Homer Bailey, RHP: A 2004 first round draft pick, Bailey, 20, started the season in High-A Sarasota and aced that test with a 10.06 K/9 ratio and a paltry 1.00 WHIP. Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga in mid-June, Bailey continued to improve, this time putting up a 10.19 K/9 ratio and a 1.15 WHIP to go along with just one home run in 68.0 innings (he gave up six in 70.2 A+ innings).

Bailey has the build, stuff, and competitive spirit to be a frontline starter as soon as 2007. His fastball touches 97 mph and he offers a plus-plus curveball to go with his changeup and slider. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righty has continued to grow physically, adding an inch and 15 pounds last year. With his frame and velocity, Bailey reminds us of Josh Beckett - though he hasn't had quite as amazing K/9 rates as Beckett did in the minors, he has given up fewer home runs.

After pitching 103.2 regular season innings in 2005 and 138.2 in 2006, Bailey still may not be ready to pitch a full season in the majors, but that won't keep the Reds from giving him a shot at opening 2007 in their rotation.

2. Joey Votto, 1B: Don't get us wrong, we really like Jay Bruce, but Votto, 22, just kept giving us reasons to rank him No. 2. For example, Votto was one of only five 20/20 men in the entire minor leagues in 2006. His 22 home runs and 24 stolen bases came as he maintained a 955 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. Votto was successful in 77.42% of his stolen base attempts, so the 6-foot-3, 220-pound lefty could keep getting the green light when he is promoted to the big leagues. How many recent 20/20 major league first basemen can you think of? (Derrek Lee went 30/20 in 2003 and Jeff Bagwell went 30/30 in 1997 and 1999.)

The 2nd round draft pick from 2002 put up .319/.408/.547 vitals in 508 at bats in 2006, rebounding like a slinky from his .256/.330/.425 A+ 2005 season. Votto had 46 doubles and 22 home runs - both easily career highs - and sports good plate decipline (1.40 K/BB ratio). Likely ticketed for Triple-A Louisville, if Votto keeps up his 2006 pace, he could be ready to contribute for the Reds by mid-2007.

3. Jay Bruce, OF: Performance-wise, Bruce, 19, has been one of the best high school hitters out of a 2005 draft that also included Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Upton. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound lefty hit .291/.355/.516 with 42 doubles, 16 home runs, and 19 stolen bases in 28 attempts (67.86%) at A-Dayton in 444 at-bats. Bruce has amazing potential but needs to work on his plate discipline (2.41 K/BB ratio) along with his base running.

High school hitters taken in the top 15 picks of the 2002-2004 drafts include: Matt Bush, Chris Nelson, Billy Butler, Neil Walker, Delmon Young, Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Lastings Milledge, B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore, Jeremy Hermida, Khalil Greene, and Russ Adams. So, you're looking at a very high percentage of major leaguers here and a decent amount of players with star potential.

Bruce will likely start 2007 in High-A Sarasota, and may remain there all season. It's unlikely that he'll get any time at the big league level in the next year due to his age and development, The Reds hope he can be Ken Griffey Jr.'s successor in center field. But by the time he breaks into the majors, Bruce could be one of the top five prospects in the game.

www.projectprospect.com

Personally I would flip Bruce and Votto, but they are on the right path with things. They are probably right with Bailey, although I don't know if he will make the rotation out of ST. I think it would be good for him to spend a few months in AAA. If Votto continues to hit in AAA and Hatteberg struggles next year, you could see him up by the second half of the season. As for Jay, well I would look for him to spend a little bit of time in AA next year if he continues along his pace.